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Exploring the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund: Will Bitcoin Secure Its Place in the National Reserve?

Writer's picture: Michal KosinskiMichal Kosinski
The Future of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund: A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or a Shift in Focus?

In the rapidly evolving landscape of global finance, the notion of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) has captured the imagination of policymakers, economists, and digital asset advocates alike. One particularly intriguing prospect is the establishment of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), a concept that could potentially catapult Bitcoin to the forefront of U.S. financial policy. However, recent developments have cast doubt on the likelihood of Bitcoin taking center stage in the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund. This article delves into the implications of this shift, the historical context of sovereign wealth funds, and what the future may hold for Bitcoin as a national asset.

What is a Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Before exploring the potential role of Bitcoin in a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, it is important to understand what sovereign wealth funds are and how they function. Sovereign wealth funds are government-owned investment funds that manage national savings. These funds are typically funded by revenues generated from natural resources such as oil, minerals, or sovereign debt.

Globally, sovereign wealth funds have become an essential tool for countries to invest their wealth in global markets, ensuring both the diversification of assets and long-term economic stability. These funds often invest in a range of assets, including stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities, to secure the future wealth of the country. Notable examples of successful sovereign wealth funds include the Government Pension Fund of Norway, which has grown to over $1.3 trillion, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which is one of the largest SWFs in the world.

Table 1: Notable Sovereign Wealth Funds Globally
Sovereign Wealth Fund	Country	Assets Under Management (AUM)	Key Investment Areas
Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG)	Norway	$1.3 trillion	Equities, bonds, real estate, renewable energy
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA)	UAE	$700 billion	Equities, fixed income, private equity, real estate, commodities
China Investment Corporation (CIC)	China	$1 trillion	Public equities, fixed income, private equity, real estate, commodities
Singapore GIC	Singapore	$690 billion	Equities, fixed income, real estate, private equity, infrastructure
The Case for Bitcoin in a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund
The concept of integrating Bitcoin into a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund is rooted in the belief that Bitcoin, as a decentralized and finite digital asset, represents a store of value with the potential to compete with traditional assets like gold. Bitcoin’s fixed supply (21 million BTC) and its ability to act as a hedge against inflation have made it an attractive option for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and reduce exposure to traditional financial systems. The idea of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would establish the United States as a global leader in cryptocurrency, signaling to the world that digital assets are not only viable but essential to the future of finance.

Historically, Bitcoin has performed well during periods of economic uncertainty. Its decentralized nature, along with its perceived immunity to inflationary pressures, makes it a compelling alternative to fiat currencies. For example, during the 2020 global pandemic, Bitcoin’s price surged as governments across the world unleashed massive stimulus packages, devaluing fiat currencies and causing concerns about inflation.

Data: Bitcoin’s Price Performance During the 2020 Economic Crisis
Date	Bitcoin Price (USD)	S&P 500 Price (USD)	Gold Price (USD/oz)
Jan 1, 2020	$7,200	$3,230	$1,520
March 2020	$4,000	$2,237	$1,500
Dec 31, 2020	$28,900	$3,756	$1,895
Dec 31, 2021	$46,300	$4,766	$1,800
Trump’s Vision for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund
President Donald Trump’s comments at the 2024 Bitcoin conference fueled widespread excitement about the possibility of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. His remarks suggested that Bitcoin could play a significant role in the country’s financial future, and that the U.S. government should consider purchasing and holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin as part of its long-term economic strategy.

However, Trump’s recent executive order has raised questions about the seriousness of this vision. While the order indeed calls for the establishment of a Sovereign Wealth Fund, it notably lacks any mention of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. Instead, the plan focuses on exploring non-Bitcoin digital assets, equities, and other financial instruments as potential investments for the fund. This has raised concerns within the Bitcoin community, as many had hoped for a more direct commitment to Bitcoin.

In response to the executive order, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated, “The future of digital assets is bright, but it’s important to recognize the value in diversification. We cannot afford to put all our eggs in one basket, especially with a volatile asset like Bitcoin.”

The Evolution of Trump’s Executive Order: What’s Inside?
The executive order, signed in early February 2025, establishes the framework for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund but leaves significant room for interpretation. The fund will focus on securing U.S. dominance in digital assets, with the goal of driving innovation in areas such as blockchain technology, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. The order creates a working group that will examine the feasibility of creating a national digital asset stockpile, which could include Bitcoin as one of the assets, though the specific allocation to Bitcoin is still unclear.

One of the key figures involved in the implementation of the executive order is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, a well-known advocate for Tether and other stablecoins. At a press conference following the signing of the executive order, Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that their team would be exploring investments in non-Bitcoin assets such as warrants, equities, and potentially other forms of digital currency, such as Ethereum (ETH). The suggestion that Ethereum might be a key focus of the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund has sent shockwaves through the crypto community, especially since President Trump’s son, Eric Trump, expressed a preference for ETH over BTC during the announcement.

Table 2: Key Figures and Roles in U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund Development
Name	Position	Role
Donald Trump	President of the United States	Oversaw the creation of the executive order for the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Howard Lutnick	Secretary of Commerce	Proponent of non-Bitcoin digital assets, including Tether and Ethereum.
Scott Bessent	Secretary of Treasury	Works with Lutnick on investment strategies for the Sovereign Wealth Fund.
David Sacks	Chair of the Working Group	Leader of the working group exploring the digital asset stockpile.
The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: A Distant Dream?
Despite Trump’s past statements, the establishment of a true Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) has never been officially promised. Several versions of an SBR have been proposed, with the most straightforward being a "strategic reserve" that would simply involve renaming existing federal holdings of Bitcoin obtained through criminal seizures. This version, while symbolic, would likely not involve the active purchase of Bitcoin by the U.S. government and would instead rely on seized or confiscated assets.

A more ambitious proposal would involve the U.S. government utilizing the Treasury Department’s resources to purchase a substantial amount of Bitcoin, perhaps using techniques like gold revaluation or accessing funds from the Exchange Stabilization Fund. This would require congressional approval and a dedicated budget for Bitcoin acquisitions. Such an initiative could pave the way for a truly national Bitcoin reserve, on par with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, as of now, there is little indication that such a proposal has gained significant traction in Washington.

Table 3: Potential Versions of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Version	Description	Challenges
Strategic Reserve (Symbolic)	Renaming existing crypto holdings acquired through law enforcement actions.	Lacks active purchases, minimal impact on market dynamics.
Treasury-Supported Reserve	U.S. Treasury uses existing funds to purchase Bitcoin, potentially via gold revaluation or stabilization funds.	Requires Congressional approval, political resistance.
Full Congressional Approval	A fully authorized reserve with a dedicated budget for Bitcoin purchases, similar to oil reserves.	High political hurdles, uncertainty over Bitcoin’s role.
The Growing Uncertainty: Betting Markets Weigh In
The probability of the U.S. government acquiring substantial Bitcoin holdings in its reserves has significantly declined. Betting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have been tracking these odds, and as of February 2025, they suggest a diminishing likelihood of Bitcoin playing a key role in the Sovereign Wealth Fund. The odds of the U.S. holding Bitcoin in its reserves by April 2025 are now a mere 18%, down from 48% just two weeks ago. While Kalshi’s odds for a Bitcoin reserve before 2026 are slightly higher (48%), they remain far from certain.

This shift in betting odds reflects the growing disillusionment within the crypto community. Even as the U.S. government continues to explore digital assets, the absence of Bitcoin from the official discussions has dampened hopes for its inclusion in national reserves.

A Global Trend: Other Countries and Their Bitcoin Reserves
While the U.S. seems hesitant to make Bitcoin a central part of its national strategy, other countries have already taken the plunge. El Salvador, for example, became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, purchasing significant amounts of Bitcoin to back its national reserve. Other countries, such as Russia, Brazil, and Turkey, have also begun investing in Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and a way to diversify their national holdings.

Country	Bitcoin Reserves	Policy on Bitcoin
El Salvador	2,301 BTC (as of 2024)	Bitcoin as legal tender, national Bitcoin reserve
Russia	Unknown, estimates suggest large holdings	Pro-Bitcoin, using BTC as a store of value
Brazil	Unknown, potential in future	Considering Bitcoin adoption as a reserve asset
Turkey	Unknown, small reserves in place	Bitcoin seen as an inflation hedge
Conclusion: The U.S. and Bitcoin’s Role in the Future
The future of Bitcoin within a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund remains uncertain. While early excitement around a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was palpable, recent shifts in government focus suggest that Bitcoin may not be the centerpiece of U.S. financial policy anytime soon. Despite this, the evolving global landscape of digital asset adoption could eventually prompt the U.S. to reconsider its stance, leading to greater integration of Bitcoin into national financial strategies.

For now, Bitcoin enthusiasts will need to temper their expectations and focus on influencing the broader conversation around digital assets and sovereign wealth funds. The reality may not be as immediate or transformative as originally hoped, but the conversation itself is a step in the right direction. Whether or not Bitcoin becomes a cornerstone of U.S. financial policy remains to be seen, but its role in global markets is undeniable and poised to grow.

As Scott Bessent said in a recent interview, “Diversification is the key to long-term prosperity. Whether that includes Bitcoin or not is still up for debate.”

In the rapidly evolving landscape of global finance, the notion of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) has captured the imagination of policymakers, economists, and digital asset advocates alike. One particularly intriguing prospect is the establishment of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), a concept that could potentially catapult Bitcoin to the forefront of U.S. financial policy. However, recent developments have cast doubt on the likelihood of Bitcoin taking center stage in the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund. This article delves into the implications of this shift, the historical context of sovereign wealth funds, and what the future may hold for Bitcoin as a national asset.


What is a Sovereign Wealth Fund?

Before exploring the potential role of Bitcoin in a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, it is important to understand what sovereign wealth funds are and how they function. Sovereign wealth funds are government-owned investment funds that manage national savings. These funds are typically funded by revenues generated from natural resources such as oil, minerals, or sovereign debt.


Globally, sovereign wealth funds have become an essential tool for countries to invest their wealth in global markets, ensuring both the diversification of assets and long-term economic stability. These funds often invest in a range of assets, including stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities, to secure the future wealth of the country. Notable examples of successful sovereign wealth funds include the Government Pension Fund of Norway, which has grown to over $1.3 trillion, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which is one of the largest SWFs in the world.


Notable Sovereign Wealth Funds Globally

Sovereign Wealth Fund

Country

Assets Under Management (AUM)

Key Investment Areas

Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG)

Norway

$1.3 trillion

Equities, bonds, real estate, renewable energy

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA)

UAE

$700 billion

Equities, fixed income, private equity, real estate, commodities

China Investment Corporation (CIC)

China

$1 trillion

Public equities, fixed income, private equity, real estate, commodities

Singapore GIC

Singapore

$690 billion

Equities, fixed income, real estate, private equity, infrastructure

The Case for Bitcoin in a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund

The concept of integrating Bitcoin into a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund is rooted in the belief that Bitcoin, as a decentralized and finite digital asset, represents a store of value with the potential to compete with traditional assets like gold. Bitcoin’s fixed supply (21 million BTC) and its ability to act as a hedge against inflation have made it an attractive option for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and reduce exposure to traditional financial systems. The idea of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would establish the United States as a global leader in cryptocurrency, signaling to the world that digital assets are not only viable but essential to the future of finance.


Historically, Bitcoin has performed well during periods of economic uncertainty. Its decentralized nature, along with its perceived immunity to inflationary pressures, makes it a compelling alternative to fiat currencies. For example, during the 2020 global pandemic, Bitcoin’s price surged as governments across the world unleashed massive stimulus packages, devaluing fiat currencies and causing concerns about inflation.


Bitcoin’s Price Performance During the 2020 Economic Crisis

Date

Bitcoin Price (USD)

S&P 500 Price (USD)

Gold Price (USD/oz)

Jan 1, 2020

$7,200

$3,230

$1,520

March 2020

$4,000

$2,237

$1,500

Dec 31, 2020

$28,900

$3,756

$1,895

Dec 31, 2021

$46,300

$4,766

$1,800

Trump’s Vision for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund

President Donald Trump’s comments at the 2024 Bitcoin conference fueled widespread excitement about the possibility of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. His remarks suggested that Bitcoin could play a significant role in the country’s financial future, and that the U.S. government should consider purchasing and holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin as part of its long-term economic strategy.


However, Trump’s recent executive order has raised questions about the seriousness of this vision. While the order indeed calls for the establishment of a Sovereign Wealth Fund, it notably lacks any mention of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. Instead, the plan focuses on exploring non-Bitcoin digital assets, equities, and other financial instruments as potential investments for the fund. This has raised concerns within the Bitcoin community, as many had hoped for a more direct commitment to Bitcoin.


In response to the executive order, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated,

“The future of digital assets is bright, but it’s important to recognize the value in diversification. We cannot afford to put all our eggs in one basket, especially with a volatile asset like Bitcoin.”

The Evolution of Trump’s Executive Order: What’s Inside?

The executive order, signed in early February 2025, establishes the framework for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund but leaves significant room for interpretation. The fund will focus on securing U.S. dominance in digital assets, with the goal of driving innovation in areas such as blockchain technology, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. The order creates a working group that will examine the feasibility of creating a national digital asset stockpile, which could include Bitcoin as one of the assets, though the specific allocation to Bitcoin is still unclear.


One of the key figures involved in the implementation of the executive order is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, a well-known advocate for Tether and other stablecoins. At a press conference following the signing of the executive order, Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that their team would be exploring investments in non-Bitcoin assets such as warrants, equities, and potentially other forms of digital currency, such as Ethereum (ETH).


The suggestion that Ethereum might be a key focus of the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund has sent shockwaves through the crypto community, especially since President Trump’s son, Eric Trump, expressed a preference for ETH over BTC during the announcement.


Key Figures and Roles in U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund Development

Name

Position

Role

Donald Trump

President of the United States

Oversaw the creation of the executive order for the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund.

Howard Lutnick

Secretary of Commerce

Proponent of non-Bitcoin digital assets, including Tether and Ethereum.

Scott Bessent

Secretary of Treasury

Works with Lutnick on investment strategies for the Sovereign Wealth Fund.

David Sacks

Chair of the Working Group

Leader of the working group exploring the digital asset stockpile.

The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: A Distant Dream?

Despite Trump’s past statements, the establishment of a true Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) has never been officially promised. Several versions of an SBR have been proposed, with the most straightforward being a "strategic reserve" that would simply involve renaming existing federal holdings of Bitcoin obtained through criminal seizures. This version, while symbolic, would likely not involve the active purchase of Bitcoin by the U.S. government and would instead rely on seized or confiscated assets.


The Future of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund: A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or a Shift in Focus?

In the rapidly evolving landscape of global finance, the notion of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) has captured the imagination of policymakers, economists, and digital asset advocates alike. One particularly intriguing prospect is the establishment of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), a concept that could potentially catapult Bitcoin to the forefront of U.S. financial policy. However, recent developments have cast doubt on the likelihood of Bitcoin taking center stage in the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund. This article delves into the implications of this shift, the historical context of sovereign wealth funds, and what the future may hold for Bitcoin as a national asset.

What is a Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Before exploring the potential role of Bitcoin in a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, it is important to understand what sovereign wealth funds are and how they function. Sovereign wealth funds are government-owned investment funds that manage national savings. These funds are typically funded by revenues generated from natural resources such as oil, minerals, or sovereign debt.

Globally, sovereign wealth funds have become an essential tool for countries to invest their wealth in global markets, ensuring both the diversification of assets and long-term economic stability. These funds often invest in a range of assets, including stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities, to secure the future wealth of the country. Notable examples of successful sovereign wealth funds include the Government Pension Fund of Norway, which has grown to over $1.3 trillion, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which is one of the largest SWFs in the world.

Table 1: Notable Sovereign Wealth Funds Globally
Sovereign Wealth Fund	Country	Assets Under Management (AUM)	Key Investment Areas
Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG)	Norway	$1.3 trillion	Equities, bonds, real estate, renewable energy
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA)	UAE	$700 billion	Equities, fixed income, private equity, real estate, commodities
China Investment Corporation (CIC)	China	$1 trillion	Public equities, fixed income, private equity, real estate, commodities
Singapore GIC	Singapore	$690 billion	Equities, fixed income, real estate, private equity, infrastructure
The Case for Bitcoin in a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund
The concept of integrating Bitcoin into a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund is rooted in the belief that Bitcoin, as a decentralized and finite digital asset, represents a store of value with the potential to compete with traditional assets like gold. Bitcoin’s fixed supply (21 million BTC) and its ability to act as a hedge against inflation have made it an attractive option for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and reduce exposure to traditional financial systems. The idea of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would establish the United States as a global leader in cryptocurrency, signaling to the world that digital assets are not only viable but essential to the future of finance.

Historically, Bitcoin has performed well during periods of economic uncertainty. Its decentralized nature, along with its perceived immunity to inflationary pressures, makes it a compelling alternative to fiat currencies. For example, during the 2020 global pandemic, Bitcoin’s price surged as governments across the world unleashed massive stimulus packages, devaluing fiat currencies and causing concerns about inflation.

Data: Bitcoin’s Price Performance During the 2020 Economic Crisis
Date	Bitcoin Price (USD)	S&P 500 Price (USD)	Gold Price (USD/oz)
Jan 1, 2020	$7,200	$3,230	$1,520
March 2020	$4,000	$2,237	$1,500
Dec 31, 2020	$28,900	$3,756	$1,895
Dec 31, 2021	$46,300	$4,766	$1,800
Trump’s Vision for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund
President Donald Trump’s comments at the 2024 Bitcoin conference fueled widespread excitement about the possibility of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. His remarks suggested that Bitcoin could play a significant role in the country’s financial future, and that the U.S. government should consider purchasing and holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin as part of its long-term economic strategy.

However, Trump’s recent executive order has raised questions about the seriousness of this vision. While the order indeed calls for the establishment of a Sovereign Wealth Fund, it notably lacks any mention of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. Instead, the plan focuses on exploring non-Bitcoin digital assets, equities, and other financial instruments as potential investments for the fund. This has raised concerns within the Bitcoin community, as many had hoped for a more direct commitment to Bitcoin.

In response to the executive order, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated, “The future of digital assets is bright, but it’s important to recognize the value in diversification. We cannot afford to put all our eggs in one basket, especially with a volatile asset like Bitcoin.”

The Evolution of Trump’s Executive Order: What’s Inside?
The executive order, signed in early February 2025, establishes the framework for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund but leaves significant room for interpretation. The fund will focus on securing U.S. dominance in digital assets, with the goal of driving innovation in areas such as blockchain technology, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. The order creates a working group that will examine the feasibility of creating a national digital asset stockpile, which could include Bitcoin as one of the assets, though the specific allocation to Bitcoin is still unclear.

One of the key figures involved in the implementation of the executive order is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, a well-known advocate for Tether and other stablecoins. At a press conference following the signing of the executive order, Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that their team would be exploring investments in non-Bitcoin assets such as warrants, equities, and potentially other forms of digital currency, such as Ethereum (ETH). The suggestion that Ethereum might be a key focus of the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund has sent shockwaves through the crypto community, especially since President Trump’s son, Eric Trump, expressed a preference for ETH over BTC during the announcement.

Table 2: Key Figures and Roles in U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund Development
Name	Position	Role
Donald Trump	President of the United States	Oversaw the creation of the executive order for the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Howard Lutnick	Secretary of Commerce	Proponent of non-Bitcoin digital assets, including Tether and Ethereum.
Scott Bessent	Secretary of Treasury	Works with Lutnick on investment strategies for the Sovereign Wealth Fund.
David Sacks	Chair of the Working Group	Leader of the working group exploring the digital asset stockpile.
The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: A Distant Dream?
Despite Trump’s past statements, the establishment of a true Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) has never been officially promised. Several versions of an SBR have been proposed, with the most straightforward being a "strategic reserve" that would simply involve renaming existing federal holdings of Bitcoin obtained through criminal seizures. This version, while symbolic, would likely not involve the active purchase of Bitcoin by the U.S. government and would instead rely on seized or confiscated assets.

A more ambitious proposal would involve the U.S. government utilizing the Treasury Department’s resources to purchase a substantial amount of Bitcoin, perhaps using techniques like gold revaluation or accessing funds from the Exchange Stabilization Fund. This would require congressional approval and a dedicated budget for Bitcoin acquisitions. Such an initiative could pave the way for a truly national Bitcoin reserve, on par with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, as of now, there is little indication that such a proposal has gained significant traction in Washington.

Table 3: Potential Versions of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Version	Description	Challenges
Strategic Reserve (Symbolic)	Renaming existing crypto holdings acquired through law enforcement actions.	Lacks active purchases, minimal impact on market dynamics.
Treasury-Supported Reserve	U.S. Treasury uses existing funds to purchase Bitcoin, potentially via gold revaluation or stabilization funds.	Requires Congressional approval, political resistance.
Full Congressional Approval	A fully authorized reserve with a dedicated budget for Bitcoin purchases, similar to oil reserves.	High political hurdles, uncertainty over Bitcoin’s role.
The Growing Uncertainty: Betting Markets Weigh In
The probability of the U.S. government acquiring substantial Bitcoin holdings in its reserves has significantly declined. Betting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have been tracking these odds, and as of February 2025, they suggest a diminishing likelihood of Bitcoin playing a key role in the Sovereign Wealth Fund. The odds of the U.S. holding Bitcoin in its reserves by April 2025 are now a mere 18%, down from 48% just two weeks ago. While Kalshi’s odds for a Bitcoin reserve before 2026 are slightly higher (48%), they remain far from certain.

This shift in betting odds reflects the growing disillusionment within the crypto community. Even as the U.S. government continues to explore digital assets, the absence of Bitcoin from the official discussions has dampened hopes for its inclusion in national reserves.

A Global Trend: Other Countries and Their Bitcoin Reserves
While the U.S. seems hesitant to make Bitcoin a central part of its national strategy, other countries have already taken the plunge. El Salvador, for example, became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, purchasing significant amounts of Bitcoin to back its national reserve. Other countries, such as Russia, Brazil, and Turkey, have also begun investing in Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and a way to diversify their national holdings.

Country	Bitcoin Reserves	Policy on Bitcoin
El Salvador	2,301 BTC (as of 2024)	Bitcoin as legal tender, national Bitcoin reserve
Russia	Unknown, estimates suggest large holdings	Pro-Bitcoin, using BTC as a store of value
Brazil	Unknown, potential in future	Considering Bitcoin adoption as a reserve asset
Turkey	Unknown, small reserves in place	Bitcoin seen as an inflation hedge
Conclusion: The U.S. and Bitcoin’s Role in the Future
The future of Bitcoin within a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund remains uncertain. While early excitement around a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was palpable, recent shifts in government focus suggest that Bitcoin may not be the centerpiece of U.S. financial policy anytime soon. Despite this, the evolving global landscape of digital asset adoption could eventually prompt the U.S. to reconsider its stance, leading to greater integration of Bitcoin into national financial strategies.

For now, Bitcoin enthusiasts will need to temper their expectations and focus on influencing the broader conversation around digital assets and sovereign wealth funds. The reality may not be as immediate or transformative as originally hoped, but the conversation itself is a step in the right direction. Whether or not Bitcoin becomes a cornerstone of U.S. financial policy remains to be seen, but its role in global markets is undeniable and poised to grow.

As Scott Bessent said in a recent interview, “Diversification is the key to long-term prosperity. Whether that includes Bitcoin or not is still up for debate.”

A more ambitious proposal would involve the U.S. government utilizing the Treasury Department’s resources to purchase a substantial amount of Bitcoin, perhaps using techniques like gold revaluation or accessing funds from the Exchange Stabilization Fund. This would require congressional approval and a dedicated budget for Bitcoin acquisitions. Such an initiative could pave the way for a truly national Bitcoin reserve, on par with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, as of now, there is little indication that such a proposal has gained significant traction in Washington.


Potential Versions of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Version

Description

Challenges

Strategic Reserve (Symbolic)

Renaming existing crypto holdings acquired through law enforcement actions.

Lacks active purchases, minimal impact on market dynamics.

Treasury-Supported Reserve

U.S. Treasury uses existing funds to purchase Bitcoin, potentially via gold revaluation or stabilization funds.

Requires Congressional approval, political resistance.

Full Congressional Approval

A fully authorized reserve with a dedicated budget for Bitcoin purchases, similar to oil reserves.

High political hurdles, uncertainty over Bitcoin’s role.

The Growing Uncertainty: Betting Markets Weigh In

The probability of the U.S. government acquiring substantial Bitcoin holdings in its reserves has significantly declined. Betting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have been tracking these odds, and as of February 2025, they suggest a diminishing likelihood of Bitcoin playing a key role in the Sovereign Wealth Fund. The odds of the U.S. holding Bitcoin in its reserves by April 2025 are now a mere 18%, down from 48% just two weeks ago. While Kalshi’s odds for a Bitcoin reserve before 2026 are slightly higher (48%), they remain far from certain.


This shift in betting odds reflects the growing disillusionment within the crypto community. Even as the U.S. government continues to explore digital assets, the absence of Bitcoin from the official discussions has dampened hopes for its inclusion in national reserves.


A Global Trend: Other Countries and Their Bitcoin Reserves

While the U.S. seems hesitant to make Bitcoin a central part of its national strategy, other countries have already taken the plunge. El Salvador, for example, became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, purchasing significant amounts of Bitcoin to back its national reserve. Other countries, such as Russia, Brazil, and Turkey, have also begun investing in Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and a way to diversify their national holdings.

Country

Bitcoin Reserves

Policy on Bitcoin

El Salvador

2,301 BTC (as of 2024)

Bitcoin as legal tender, national Bitcoin reserve

Russia

Unknown, estimates suggest large holdings

Pro-Bitcoin, using BTC as a store of value

Brazil

Unknown, potential in future

Considering Bitcoin adoption as a reserve asset

Turkey

Unknown, small reserves in place

Bitcoin seen as an inflation hedge

The U.S. and Bitcoin’s Role in the Future

The future of Bitcoin within a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund remains uncertain. While early excitement around a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was palpable, recent shifts in government focus suggest that Bitcoin may not be the centerpiece of U.S. financial policy anytime soon. Despite this, the evolving global landscape of digital asset adoption could eventually prompt the U.S. to reconsider its stance, leading to greater integration of Bitcoin into national financial strategies.


For now, Bitcoin enthusiasts will need to temper their expectations and focus on influencing the broader conversation around digital assets and sovereign wealth funds. The reality may not be as immediate or transformative as originally hoped, but the conversation itself is a step in the right direction. Whether or not Bitcoin becomes a cornerstone of U.S. financial policy remains to be seen, but its role in global markets is undeniable and poised to grow.

As Scott Bessent said in a recent interview,

"Diversification is the key to long-term prosperity. Whether that includes Bitcoin or not is still up for debate.”

For more insights on the future of digital assets, cryptocurrency policy, and the role of emerging technologies in shaping global finance, stay tuned to expert opinions from Dr. Shahid Masood and the 1950.ai team.


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